Utilities Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) 50 Day Lows

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 2.68%.   Win rate: 89.39%.   Mean CAGR: 67.14%. Time in market: 30 years 74 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -7.984. Maximum drawdown: 46.16% on 10 October 2002.

About this Chart's Calculations for US Utilities

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (89.39% * 5.08%) - (10.61% * 17.51%) = 2.68%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

50 Day Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 43 44 47 54
2024 85 92 102 147 201
2023 151 153 166 228 291
2022 41 47 43 50
2021 36 50 59 104 264
2020 38 40 43 65 316
2019 53 68 69 75
2018 67 71 78 111 255
2017 308 335 348
2016 120 146 171 182 284
2015 113 123 168 148 153
2014 24 31 77 86 146
2013 31 103 154 212 235
2012 109 113 119 143 360
2011 34 43 47 71 303
2010 47 80 130 156 344
2009 88 92 93 113
2008 47 48 49
2007 68 90 103 136
2006 97 105 114 120 248
2005 62 63 98 279
2004 96 112 126 142 211
2003 43 51 61 101 156
2002 32 126 171 180 220
2001 55 72 83 63
Avg. Days 75 91 108 128 249
CAGR 26.8% 26.3% 27.7% 31.2% 30.6%

50 Day Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2026 $44.74 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 December 2025 $42.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
09 September 2025 $40.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
07 April 2025 $36.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 December 2024 $38.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 February 2024 $29.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 September 2023 $29.37 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 August 2023 $30.43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 February 2023 $32.31 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
29 September 2022 $31.90 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
13 June 2022 $32.01 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
15 February 2022 $30.55 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
28 September 2021 $29.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 June 2021 $29.07 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 February 2021 $27.05 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 December 2020 $27.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
24 September 2020 $25.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 February 2020 $26.87 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
08 November 2019 $26.35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
26 December 2018 $21.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 June 2018 $19.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 February 2018 $20.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
20 December 2017 $21.43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
10 November 2016 $18.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 October 2016 $18.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
26 August 2016 $19.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
11 December 2015 $15.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 September 2015 $15.35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 June 2015 $15.87 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
02 March 2015 $16.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
05 August 2014 $14.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 September 2013 $12.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 May 2013 $12.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
06 November 2012 $11.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
18 September 2012 $11.99 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
13 April 2012 $11.25 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 August 2011 $10.17 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 March 2011 $9.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 November 2010 $9.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
20 May 2010 $8.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 February 2010 $8.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
02 November 2009 $8.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
17 February 2009 $7.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
07 October 2008 $8.44 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
04 September 2008 $10.17 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 July 2008 $11.06 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 February 2008 $10.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 January 2008 $11.11 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 July 2007 $10.34 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
07 June 2007 $10.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
28 March 2006 $8.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 October 2005 $7.89 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 April 2004 $5.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 August 2003 $4.91 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 February 2003 $4.20 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 October 2002 $4.01 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 July 2002 $4.83 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 June 2002 $5.62 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
07 May 2002 $5.89 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
30 January 2002 $6.00 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 November 2001 $6.09 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 October 2001 $6.32 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 September 2001 $6.56 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
24 July 2001 $6.59 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
21 June 2001 $6.76 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 March 2001 $6.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
11 January 2001 $6.80 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

50 Day Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2026 $44.74
08 December 2025 $42.44 31.0 37.4 45.0 55.3
09 September 2025 $40.59 143.6 162.9 200.3 231.9
07 April 2025 $36.70 1,173.6 277.9 232.4 144.0 44.1
17 December 2024 $38.00 13.6 16.3 18.9 17.5 24.6
05 February 2024 $29.59 77.6 62.2 66.0 56.2 94.5
27 September 2023 $29.37 26.4 31.8 40.2 19.5 33.4
15 August 2023 $30.43 8.2 9.7 11.0 14.2 20.8
03 February 2023 $32.31
29 September 2022 $31.90 32.7 32.8
13 June 2022 $32.01 48.6 58.8 71.6 78.6
15 February 2022 $30.55 185.0 189.7 104.2 133.6
28 September 2021 $29.14 110.0 45.2 45.0 55.3 41.9
18 June 2021 $29.07 39.9 46.2 52.1 21.2 25.6
22 February 2021 $27.05 74.5 75.0 84.7 95.2 23.9
21 December 2020 $27.24 19.9 22.5 26.1 35.0
24 September 2020 $25.36 404.7 591.5 806.0 916.4 23.4
28 February 2020 $26.87 3,425.9 6,930.3 >10,000
08 November 2019 $26.35 39.9 36.7 46.6 59.0
26 December 2018 $21.64 61.8 64.0 61.5 66.8 32.6
06 June 2018 $19.88 155.3 189.7 166.2 64.4 27.5
02 February 2018 $20.12 13.1 15.2 18.7 19.4
20 December 2017 $21.43 6.0 6.6 7.9
10 November 2016 $18.03 57.9 26.7 29.2 38.8 26.4
04 October 2016 $18.46 13.6 16.3 20.3 22.9
26 August 2016 $19.04 10.3 10.8 10.3 13.6
11 December 2015 $15.60 168.9 55.7 71.1 95.2 83.1
02 September 2015 $15.35 81.0 90.5 84.8 26.3 40.2
04 June 2015 $15.87 29.0 33.3 11.5 15.3
02 March 2015 $16.28 5.4 6.5 8.1
05 August 2014 $14.62 110.0 98.7 40.8 49.9 57.7
05 September 2013 $12.65 257.0 57.2 64.3 24.1 32.7
31 May 2013 $12.86 44.9 14.2 10.8 14.1
06 November 2012 $11.92 17.4 19.8 24.9 27.8
18 September 2012 $11.99 11.5 13.6 16.0 20.0
13 April 2012 $11.25 39.1 47.2 53.3 43.1 20.3
04 August 2011 $10.17 98.4 63.9 75.7 51.3 23.1
16 March 2011 $9.72 52.8 64.0 73.4 82.2 26.2
26 November 2010 $9.50 37.4 23.2 19.0 24.6
20 May 2010 $8.65 89.0 40.9 48.0 39.7 21.3
05 February 2010 $8.66 35.2 31.8 16.7 18.2
02 November 2009 $8.40 117.0 108.3 139.6 144.1
17 February 2009 $7.88 12.3 14.6 18.3 20.3
07 October 2008 $8.44
04 September 2008 $10.17
16 July 2008 $11.06
29 February 2008 $10.50 46.1 55.8 70.9
18 January 2008 $11.11
27 July 2007 $10.34 341.1 48.2 53.8 44.8
07 June 2007 $10.68 15.5 18.4 20.1 21.5
28 March 2006 $8.14 20.2 22.4 26.1 33.6 30.8
13 October 2005 $7.89 33.3 40.1 30.8 13.3
14 April 2004 $5.66 20.4 20.9 23.4 27.7 37.1
04 August 2003 $4.91 63.9 58.7 58.6 30.7 37.3
10 February 2003 $4.20 41.8 46.2 50.6 62.1 92.0
07 October 2002 $4.01 109.7 113.4 157.8 219.0 35.3
16 July 2002 $4.83 61.7 7.0 8.7 11.1
14 June 2002 $5.62
07 May 2002 $5.89
30 January 2002 $6.00 66.3 80.5
29 November 2001 $6.09 66.4
23 October 2001 $6.32
06 September 2001 $6.56
24 July 2001 $6.59
21 June 2001 $6.76
14 March 2001 $6.59 93.3 86.9 117.4 73.8
11 January 2001 $6.80 18.5 21.3 22.1

The data for Utilities Sector SPDR Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: XLU) was last updated 14 May 2026 00:22. Data for this ETF is available from 03 Jan 2000 - 13 May 2026.