Utilities Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) 26 Week Lows

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 3.15%.   Win rate: 86.96%.   Mean CAGR: 74.2%. Time in market: 11 years 124 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -3.522. Maximum drawdown: 42.43% on 10 October 2002.

About this Chart's Calculations for US Utilities

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (86.96% * 5.1%) - (13.04% * 9.84%) = 3.15%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

26 Week Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2023 150 151 165 228 291
2022 22 31 42 46
2018 176 208 218 287
2016 39 90 103 106 284
2015 49 51 58 195 248
2012 77 82 96 116 167
2010 25 27 61 67 341
2009 66 66 70 105 202
2008 44 44 46 79
2002 25 124 171 179 91
2001 35
Avg. Days 64 87 103 140 232
CAGR 32.1% 27.7% 29.2% 28.2% 33.2%

26 Week Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
07 April 2025 $36.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 September 2023 $29.37 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 August 2023 $30.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 October 2022 $29.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
12 March 2020 $24.11 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 January 2018 $20.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
10 November 2016 $18.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 September 2015 $15.35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 June 2015 $15.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 November 2012 $11.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 May 2010 $8.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 February 2009 $7.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 October 2008 $8.44 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
05 September 2008 $10.02 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 August 2008 $10.31 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 March 2008 $10.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
08 October 2002 $3.95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 July 2002 $4.83 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 June 2002 $5.62 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
13 May 2002 $5.80 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
30 January 2002 $6.00 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 November 2001 $6.09 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 October 2001 $6.32 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

26 Week Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
07 April 2025 $36.70 1,173.6 277.9 232.4 144.0 44.1
27 September 2023 $29.37 26.4 31.8 40.2 19.5 33.4
16 August 2023 $30.40 8.2 9.9 11.0 14.3 20.9
10 October 2022 $29.96 124.6 98.6 87.4 113.1
12 March 2020 $24.11 88.9 113.8 156.8 52.1 31.7
10 January 2018 $20.50 10.6 10.8 12.8 12.9
10 November 2016 $18.03 57.9 26.7 29.2 38.8 26.4
02 September 2015 $15.35 81.0 90.5 84.8 26.3 40.2
05 June 2015 $15.65 30.0 36.1 43.4 15.5 24.8
09 November 2012 $11.60 26.0 29.6 31.5 35.0 49.0
21 May 2010 $8.54 103.8 119.9 54.6 68.1 21.5
27 February 2009 $7.28 31.0 38.1 45.7 39.3 39.0
07 October 2008 $8.44
05 September 2008 $10.02
04 August 2008 $10.31
03 March 2008 $10.48 49.9 62.2 77.3 55.4
08 October 2002 $3.95 144.1 152.1 168.1 246.3 107.7
16 July 2002 $4.83 61.7 7.0 8.7 11.1
14 June 2002 $5.62
13 May 2002 $5.80 404.2
30 January 2002 $6.00 66.3 80.5
29 November 2001 $6.09 66.4
23 October 2001 $6.32

The data for Utilities Sector SPDR Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: XLU) was last updated 21 Jul 2026 05:40. Data for this ETF is available from 03 Jan 2000 - 20 Jul 2026.