Financial Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) 50 Day Lows

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 2.64%.   Win rate: 91.78%.   Mean CAGR: 122.8%. Time in market: 29 years 202 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -4.766. Maximum drawdown: 81.96% on 09 March 2009.

About this Chart's Calculations for US Financials

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (91.78% * 5.46%) - (8.22% * 28.75%) = 2.64%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

50 Day Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2026 83 83 119 89
2025 25 28 50
2023 66 67 119 125 195
2022 28 32 35 74
2021 17 17 20 24 105
2020 163 163 164 181 213
2019 26 27 29 75 176
2018 105 121 148 123 329
2017 36 40 51 76 178
2016 82 92 119 133 213
2015 65 125 148
2014 18 21 23 73 305
2012 92 97 114 119 236
2011 81 83 173 129 35
2010 63 64 74 110 133
2009 8 9 9 9 47
2008 80 81 100 116 337
2007 41 71 64
2006 112 114 114 133 350
2005 103 107 117 154 342
2004 80 94 119 83
2003 43 44 48 57 110
2002 124 125 126 176 48
2001 48 49 8 13 167
2000 13 13 18 19
Avg. Days 64 70 84 95 195
CAGR 32.1% 35.5% 36.9% 44.2% 40.7%

50 Day Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
19 March 2026 $48.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
12 February 2026 $52.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
17 November 2025 $51.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 April 2025 $45.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 October 2023 $31.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 September 2023 $33.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 March 2023 $33.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 September 2022 $30.69 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 July 2022 $30.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
10 June 2022 $32.78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
26 April 2022 $35.57 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
24 February 2022 $37.48 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 December 2021 $37.74 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
19 July 2021 $35.26 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
19 July 2021 $33.22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 September 2020 $21.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 February 2020 $27.10 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 August 2019 $23.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 December 2018 $22.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 October 2018 $23.67 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
26 June 2018 $23.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
03 May 2018 $23.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
23 March 2018 $23.93 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
07 September 2017 $20.91 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 April 2017 $19.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 June 2016 $15.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 February 2016 $13.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 January 2016 $15.85 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 August 2015 $16.23 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
14 January 2015 $15.80 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
16 October 2014 $14.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
03 February 2014 $13.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 May 2012 $9.22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 September 2011 $7.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 August 2011 $9.17 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
16 June 2011 $9.31 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
13 May 2011 $10.01 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
16 March 2011 $10.10 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
24 August 2010 $8.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 June 2010 $8.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 May 2010 $9.27 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
04 February 2010 $8.73 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 March 2009 $4.39 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 January 2009 $5.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 November 2008 $8.05 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 October 2008 $10.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 July 2008 $11.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
02 June 2008 $14.46 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 March 2008 $14.33 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
04 January 2008 $16.17 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 November 2007 $18.77 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 August 2007 $19.10 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 June 2007 $20.77 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 February 2007 $20.48 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
24 May 2006 $18.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 October 2005 $15.90 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 August 2005 $16.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
04 April 2005 $15.31 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 February 2005 $15.97 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
25 October 2004 $14.77 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
06 August 2004 $14.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 April 2004 $15.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
10 March 2003 $10.53 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 January 2003 $11.19 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 October 2002 $10.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 July 2002 $12.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
03 June 2002 $13.38 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
30 January 2002 $12.95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 September 2001 $11.47 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 August 2001 $13.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 July 2001 $13.81 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
21 February 2001 $13.78 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
12 October 2000 $13.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank

50 Day Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
19 March 2026 $48.88 98.4 119.8 36.4 47.8
12 February 2026 $52.30 13.6 16.4 18.8
17 November 2025 $51.96 103.9 113.8 69.5
04 April 2025 $45.14 155.3 206.3 165.8 178.2 48.6
27 October 2023 $31.72 1,845.4 3,361.6 372.8 469.4 116.8
25 September 2023 $33.66 32.1 38.7 41.5 55.3 53.2
10 March 2023 $33.04 14.7 17.6 10.5 13.4 21.4
26 September 2022 $30.69 124.7 108.2 140.9 196.6
14 July 2022 $30.72 3,422.2 3,361.6 556.9 302.1
10 June 2022 $32.78 33.9 40.9 52.0 23.2
26 April 2022 $35.57
24 February 2022 $37.48 98.4
20 December 2021 $37.74 227.8 312.8 373.7
19 July 2021 $35.26 168.9 226.0 232.0 326.2
19 July 2021 $33.22 169.0 226.0 232.6 326.2 88.5
24 September 2020 $21.58 404.6 488.4 556.9 113.0 197.7
24 February 2020 $27.10 5.8 7.0 8.7 11.6 20.0
14 August 2019 $23.58 98.4 119.9 149.1 59.0 45.9
10 December 2018 $22.04 47.3 38.7 38.6 32.7 22.4
11 October 2018 $23.67 9.3 11.2 9.7
26 June 2018 $23.59 81.0 65.9 36.0
03 May 2018 $23.68 20.6 20.1 20.8
23 March 2018 $23.93 11.9 12.5
07 September 2017 $20.91 293.7 189.7 187.4 124.6 70.3
13 April 2017 $19.88 34.6 41.7 41.0 37.2 33.4
24 June 2016 $15.32 168.9 189.5 87.4 68.1 60.8
09 February 2016 $13.86 293.4 175.4 231.8 326.1 44.4
06 January 2016 $15.85 8.6 9.4 9.4 12.0 23.1
21 August 2015 $16.23
14 January 2015 $15.80 31.5 18.6 19.5
16 October 2014 $14.62 825.6 489.0 556.9 469.7
03 February 2014 $13.75 84.9 103.2 127.9 31.8 24.4
16 May 2012 $9.22 21.4 24.5 26.1 34.0 32.6
22 September 2011 $7.36 3,420.6 6,958.5 271.6 231.8 569.3
02 August 2011 $9.17 8.3 9.9 12.4 16.3
16 June 2011 $9.31 227.5 175.1 10.2
13 May 2011 $10.01
16 March 2011 $10.10
24 August 2010 $8.46 493.0 739.4 275.2 100.5 65.6
30 June 2010 $8.68 293.5 413.9 122.6 31.2 40.0
19 May 2010 $9.27 9.1 10.9 12.9 16.4
04 February 2010 $8.73 98.2 113.8 147.3 178.2 162.4
02 March 2009 $4.39 495.6 735.8 999.5 2,261.5 6,296.6
20 January 2009 $5.24 1,170.7 1,331.7 2,670.1 7,612.0 132.2
11 November 2008 $8.05 6.9 8.3 10.3 13.1 21.8
06 October 2008 $10.80
07 July 2008 $11.72 404.8 356.6 482.3 779.6
02 June 2008 $14.46
06 March 2008 $14.33 257.1 226.0 335.8 100.5
04 January 2008 $16.17 89.0 113.7
01 November 2007 $18.77
01 August 2007 $19.10 204.4 54.4 51.2
26 June 2007 $20.77
27 February 2007 $20.48 31.0 25.7
24 May 2006 $18.03 17.2 20.5 26.0 29.9 20.9
11 October 2005 $15.90 143.6 152.1 140.3 133.6 21.8
26 August 2005 $16.06 29.5 32.3 40.9 47.8
04 April 2005 $15.31 28.0 33.3 30.3 17.7 21.2
22 February 2005 $15.97 7.3 8.6 10.6 13.6
25 October 2004 $14.77 825.4 962.4 369.6 103.4
06 August 2004 $14.66 143.6 94.4 34.4 34.3
14 April 2004 $15.28 8.8 9.2 11.0
10 March 2003 $10.53 827.7 738.9 992.5 246.3 132.2
27 January 2003 $11.19 25.7 30.9 36.5 49.9 60.3
04 October 2002 $10.16 404.9 590.3 1,002.5 2,264.5 300.1
10 July 2002 $12.24 5.6 6.7 8.4 10.7
03 June 2002 $13.38
30 January 2002 $12.95 68.8 83.6 104.1
20 September 2001 $11.47 1,841.0 1,326.8 2,618.5 1,353.0 49.0
17 August 2001 $13.80
11 July 2001 $13.81
21 February 2001 $13.78 21.9 26.3
12 October 2000 $13.00 293.6 413.7 332.3 524.2

The data for Financial Sector SPDR Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: XLF) was last updated 21 Jul 2026 05:40. Data for this ETF is available from 03 Jan 2000 - 15 Jul 2026.