SPDR Biotech (XBI) Mega Dump Lite

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 2.6%.   Win rate: 87.88%.   Mean CAGR: 129.31%. Time in market: 14 years 34 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -2.693. Maximum drawdown: 53.45% on 12 May 2022.

About this Chart's Calculations for US Biotech

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (87.88% * 5.65%) - (12.12% * 19.48%) = 2.6%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump Lite - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 116 127 128 144 177
2024 71 131 150 156 252
2023 74 79 83 118 190
2022 37 40 45 40 59
2021 20 29 28 29
Avg. Days 63 81 86 97 169
CAGR 32.7% 30% 35.9% 43.1% 48.3%

Mega Dump Lite - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 June 2025 $83.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 May 2025 $78.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 April 2025 $72.19 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 March 2025 $87.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 January 2025 $92.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 December 2024 $91.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 November 2024 $94.20 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 August 2024 $93.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
28 May 2024 $89.90 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
23 April 2024 $84.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 March 2024 $95.85 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
17 November 2023 $71.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 October 2023 $69.91 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 September 2023 $78.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 August 2023 $79.78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 July 2023 $82.99 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 April 2023 $76.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 March 2023 $82.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 October 2022 $82.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
27 September 2022 $76.83 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
24 August 2022 $88.74 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
22 June 2022 $70.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 May 2022 $70.34 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 April 2022 $85.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
15 March 2022 $81.82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
11 February 2022 $94.08 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 January 2022 $102.58 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 December 2021 $113.37 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
20 July 2021 $127.60 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 June 2021 $136.39 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 May 2021 $122.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
09 April 2021 $131.28 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 March 2021 $139.21 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

Mega Dump Lite - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 June 2025 $83.54 110.0 43.4 55.3 56.2 86.3
13 May 2025 $78.42 124.7 142.6 166.0 84.1 78.4
10 April 2025 $72.19 8,485.9 488.4 660.7 1,100.0 109.5
07 March 2025 $87.04 10.5 12.5 15.6 19.4 36.3
27 January 2025 $92.32 7.7 9.1 11.3 15.1 27.6
24 December 2024 $91.96 6.8 7.9 9.9 13.1 24.2
21 November 2024 $94.20 1,845.1 7.0 8.7 11.5 20.6
08 August 2024 $93.98 404.8 488.5 662.1 46.6
28 May 2024 $89.90 227.8 62.1 82.2 116.6
23 April 2024 $84.54 493.5 738.8 232.3 120.5 103.0
21 March 2024 $95.85 16.4 18.2 12.1
17 November 2023 $71.70 293.5 356.8 372.1 524.1 569.5
16 October 2023 $69.91 51.3 62.2 82.1 106.4 215.0
12 September 2023 $78.94 21.4 26.0 33.3 41.6 49.3
11 August 2023 $79.78 15.4 18.7 23.5 29.2 39.9
10 July 2023 $82.99 11.2 13.5 16.9 21.1 33.4
03 April 2023 $76.58 256.8 312.8 134.4 196.6 26.8
01 March 2023 $82.96 29.0 24.2 28.9 11.7 20.1
31 October 2022 $82.76 27.2 28.4 35.4 44.8
27 September 2022 $76.83 1,173.5 1,987.3 122.5 106.4
24 August 2022 $88.74
22 June 2022 $70.38 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 1,353.0 370.0
20 May 2022 $70.34 68.8 83.6 112.7 113.0 140.0
18 April 2022 $85.48 17.7 20.9 26.6
15 March 2022 $81.82 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
11 February 2022 $94.08
10 January 2022 $102.58
07 December 2021 $113.37
20 July 2021 $127.60 51.3 62.1
14 June 2021 $136.39
11 May 2021 $122.08 185.1 119.8 156.7 231.9
09 April 2021 $131.28 169.0 226.0
09 March 2021 $139.21 >10,000

The data for SPDR Biotech (exchange: ARCX symbol: XBI) was last updated 06 Mar 2026 15:04. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 05 Mar 2026.