Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) 50 Day Lows

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 4.99%.   Win rate: 100%.   Mean CAGR: 116.58%. Time in market: 8 years 113 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -8.137. Maximum drawdown: 27.66% on 23 March 2020.

About this Chart's Calculations for S&P 500

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (100% * 4.99%) - (0% * 0%) = 4.99%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

50 Day Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 112 115 121 142 311
2024 9 10 11 45 329
2023 40 45 54 68 146
2022 37 41 42 60 265
2021 17 24 31 84
2020 146 159 163 180 295
2019 21 22 42 154 232
2018 58 88 106 137 222
2016 41 55 73 127 252
2015 293 326 329
2014 19 23 41 86 322
2012 70 75 93 109 259
2011 139 143 153 167 115
Avg. Days 77 86 96 113 249
CAGR 26% 28.1% 31.6% 36.1% 30.6%

50 Day Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
07 April 2025 $456.55 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 March 2025 $529.91 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 August 2024 $471.22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 October 2023 $380.27 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 September 2023 $390.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 September 2022 $329.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 June 2022 $333.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
02 May 2022 $365.40 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
23 February 2022 $376.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 January 2022 $396.81 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
04 October 2021 $378.39 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
26 February 2020 $266.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 May 2019 $234.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 December 2018 $197.85 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 November 2018 $220.20 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 October 2018 $228.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
02 April 2018 $214.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
01 November 2016 $169.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 June 2016 $159.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 February 2016 $145.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 January 2016 $157.85 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
20 August 2015 $159.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
29 June 2015 $160.78 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
13 October 2014 $144.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
03 February 2014 $132.91 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 November 2012 $101.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 May 2012 $97.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 October 2011 $79.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 August 2011 $89.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
06 June 2011 $92.11 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank

50 Day Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
07 April 2025 $456.55 >10,000 >10,000 4,241.8 590.8 203.2
04 March 2025 $529.91 17.2 20.3 24.4 27.8 23.9
05 August 2024 $471.22 623.4 738.8 1,002.2 116.6 22.4
25 October 2023 $380.27 143.6 189.6 176.0 106.4 74.1
22 September 2023 $390.84 34.6 35.5 38.0 48.5 46.9
23 September 2022 $329.16 44.9 54.3 71.4 65.6 28.5
13 June 2022 $333.52 59.8 60.4 79.8 95.2
02 May 2022 $365.40
23 February 2022 $376.50 93.4 103.2 117.4
20 January 2022 $396.81
04 October 2021 $378.39 185.1 142.6 134.3 51.3
26 February 2020 $266.86 13.0 14.3 17.6 21.3 25.3
29 May 2019 $234.14 133.5 162.9 87.5 25.3 33.2
24 December 2018 $197.85 8,479.2 356.8 481.4 353.8 118.8
20 November 2018 $220.20 293.5 24.5 25.1 29.1 20.3
11 October 2018 $228.54 10.8 12.6 14.5 14.0
02 April 2018 $214.18 52.8 38.7 30.6 31.5
01 November 2016 $169.44 64.0 77.7 49.2 39.7 23.0
27 June 2016 $159.50 404.8 356.8 372.4 26.7 30.9
09 February 2016 $145.02 293.5 249.4 232.0 156.1 42.5
04 January 2016 $157.85 18.3 14.7 14.9 17.1
20 August 2015 $159.60 6.3 6.7 8.4
29 June 2015 $160.78
13 October 2014 $144.72 185.1 225.9 187.4 92.8
03 February 2014 $132.91 124.7 108.2 57.7 34.0 23.0
08 November 2012 $101.88 38.2 45.2 45.0 44.2 42.5
14 May 2012 $97.40 23.3 25.4 25.5 32.7 22.3
03 October 2011 $79.75 1,173.4 1,986.8 1,774.4 2,262.8 78.4
03 August 2011 $89.94 11.1 12.8 15.4 18.1
06 June 2011 $92.11 7.6 9.0 10.4 13.1

The data for Vanguard S&P 500 (exchange: ARCX symbol: VOO) was last updated 06 Mar 2026 15:03. Data for this ETF is available from 09 Sep 2010 - 05 Mar 2026.