United States Oil Fund (USO) Super Oversold

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: -7.17%.   Win rate: 74.19%.   Mean CAGR: 137.36%. Time in market: 39 years 260 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -3.56. Maximum drawdown: 78.00% on 28 April 2020.

About this Chart's Calculations for Oil

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (74.19% * 6.45%) - (25.81% * 46.35%) = -7.17%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Super Oversold - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2022 5 5 12 18 266
2020 98 98 99 100 138
2018 67 69 76 81 97
2017 9 9 12 34 128
2016 35 36 47 51 75
2015 40 35 36 17 43
2012 68 69 77 82
2011 4 6 12 54 73
2010 2 2 2 16 169
2009 43 43 45 48 95
2008 6 42 68 111 12
2007 33 35 52 68 193
2006 289 297 301 344
Avg. Days 53 57 64 78 117
CAGR 39.9% 45.2% 51.1% 56.2% 76.6%

Super Oversold - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 June 2026 $115.90 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 December 2022 $62.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 April 2020 $24.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 April 2020 $24.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 April 2020 $30.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 March 2020 $35.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 March 2020 $48.56 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
10 March 2020 $57.28 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
09 March 2020 $53.35 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
09 March 2020 $53.35 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
27 February 2020 $78.00 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
20 December 2018 $78.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 November 2018 $86.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 November 2018 $92.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
21 June 2017 $70.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 February 2016 $63.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 February 2016 $66.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 January 2016 $74.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 January 2016 $79.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 December 2015 $91.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
25 August 2015 $103.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 August 2015 $100.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 August 2015 $107.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
11 August 2015 $115.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
16 March 2015 $131.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 January 2015 $134.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 January 2015 $140.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
02 January 2015 $159.44 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 December 2014 $182.60 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 December 2014 $187.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 December 2014 $187.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 December 2014 $206.50 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 November 2014 $223.48 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
13 November 2014 $228.88 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 October 2014 $251.04 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 October 2014 $259.04 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
31 May 2012 $262.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
03 October 2011 $239.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 August 2011 $254.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 August 2011 $256.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 May 2010 $251.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 February 2009 $191.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 February 2009 $191.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 February 2009 $207.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 February 2009 $222.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 January 2009 $264.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 December 2008 $232.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 December 2008 $276.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
04 December 2008 $290.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
20 November 2008 $324.76 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 November 2008 $324.76 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
11 November 2008 $392.40 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 November 2008 $402.32 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 November 2008 $402.32 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
24 October 2008 $417.48 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 October 2008 $492.48 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 October 2008 $567.24 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 October 2008 $580.36 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 October 2008 $580.36 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 January 2007 $367.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 January 2007 $374.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 January 2007 $383.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 October 2006 $431.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank

Super Oversold - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 June 2026 $115.90
09 December 2022 $62.96 3,422.2 6,939.1 801.5 590.8 28.4
21 April 2020 $24.00 81.1 103.2 141.1 218.9 187.6
21 April 2020 $24.00 81.1 103.2 141.1 218.9 187.6
20 April 2020 $30.04 7.9 9.5 11.7 15.5 26.0
27 March 2020 $35.94 1,845.4 3,360.7 8,099.0 >10,000 >10,000
16 March 2020 $48.56
10 March 2020 $57.28
09 March 2020 $53.35 >10,000 >10,000
09 March 2020 $53.35 >10,000 >10,000
27 February 2020 $78.00
20 December 2018 $78.12 169.0 206.3 274.4 469.4 192.5
23 November 2018 $86.84 29.4 35.5 35.0 46.6 64.9
20 November 2018 $92.40 16.9 19.8 24.4 30.2
21 June 2017 $70.72 623.3 962.3 800.8 178.2 68.2
10 February 2016 $63.72 1,845.4 1,986.7 4,245.7 7,636.4 1,193.0
09 February 2016 $66.76 623.3 413.5 251.7 353.8 755.6
12 January 2016 $74.40 38.2 47.2 58.9 70.8 86.3
07 January 2016 $79.16 29.0 34.9 28.6 36.8 61.4
10 December 2015 $91.24 11.2 12.5 15.7
25 August 2015 $103.00 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 370.0
24 August 2015 $100.44 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
20 August 2015 $107.68 826.3 1,327.6 1,003.3 2,263.1
11 August 2015 $115.88 143.6 46.2 58.9 80.3
16 March 2015 $131.28 493.5 738.9 1,302.4 3,142.1 755.6
28 January 2015 $134.08 3,422.2 6,936.8 >10,000 >10,000 106.1
12 January 2015 $140.68 133.5 162.9 231.9 246.4
02 January 2015 $159.44 15.4
11 December 2014 $182.60
10 December 2014 $187.80
10 December 2014 $187.80
01 December 2014 $206.50
26 November 2014 $223.48
13 November 2014 $228.88
14 October 2014 $251.04
09 October 2014 $259.04
31 May 2012 $262.60 29.9 36.1 40.9 52.8
03 October 2011 $239.00 8,480.7 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 1,959.2
09 August 2011 $254.36 >10,000 3,363.2 2,611.6 57.1 97.2
08 August 2011 $256.24 1,173.1 962.3 200.4 56.2 94.5
25 May 2010 $251.32 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 779.6 48.3
17 February 2009 $191.12 826.3 1,327.4 1,776.9 4,672.0 976.9
17 February 2009 $191.12 826.3 1,327.4 1,776.9 4,672.0 976.9
12 February 2009 $207.16 143.6 162.9 187.5 187.0 450.9
06 February 2009 $222.40 56.1 70.2 90.4 116.6 90.8
08 January 2009 $264.72 13.6 16.4 20.6 27.3 26.7
24 December 2008 $232.02 3,422.5 1,987.0 1,779.3 4,672.3 >10,000
05 December 2008 $276.00 1,845.4 3,362.9 8,041.1 3,142.1
04 December 2008 $290.68 404.8 12.0 15.0 11.6
20 November 2008 $324.76 8,480.7 3,363.1
20 November 2008 $324.76 8,480.7 3,363.1
11 November 2008 $392.40
07 November 2008 $402.32
07 November 2008 $402.32
24 October 2008 $417.48 3,422.2 591.4
15 October 2008 $492.48
09 October 2008 $567.24
06 October 2008 $580.36
06 October 2008 $580.36
10 January 2007 $367.84 116.9 152.1 141.1 120.5 43.6
09 January 2007 $374.28 93.4 98.6 79.8 56.2 41.9
04 January 2007 $383.56 42.8 49.4 37.4 51.3 37.9
03 October 2006 $431.44 6.4 7.4 9.2 10.6

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 18 Jun 2026 04:06. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 17 Jun 2026.