United States Oil Fund (USO) Mega Dump

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 0%.   Win rate: 84.62%.   Mean CAGR: 187.89%. Time in market: 5 years 274 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -0.663. Maximum drawdown: 63.39% on 11 February 2016.

About this Chart's Calculations for Oil

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (84.62% * 7.4%) - (15.38% * 40.7%) = 0%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2020 2 3 3 3 92
2016 6 7 27 31 59
2010 2 15 20 68 216
2009 68 68 70 115 90
2008 4 4 4
Avg. Days 16 19 24 54 114
CAGR 204.4% 206.3% 200.4% 90.5% 79.3%

Mega Dump - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
29 June 2026 $106.86 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 June 2020 $25.97 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 April 2020 $17.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 March 2020 $38.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
23 February 2016 $68.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 January 2016 $73.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 December 2014 $172.76 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 May 2010 $259.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 March 2009 $227.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 February 2009 $222.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 January 2009 $292.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
02 December 2008 $316.00 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
29 October 2008 $440.72 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 September 2008 $635.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

Mega Dump - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
29 June 2026 $106.86
01 June 2020 $25.97 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 45.6
28 April 2020 $17.16 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
26 March 2020 $38.92 826.3 1,327.2 2,613.2 7,636.4
23 February 2016 $68.96 1,173.1 1,327.9 1,299.5 1,352.7 1,705.4
22 January 2016 $73.44 1,845.4 3,361.8 79.8 103.4 100.0
19 December 2014 $172.76
26 May 2010 $259.28 >10,000 312.8 274.4 66.8 36.1
10 March 2009 $227.72 623.3 962.4 661.9 1,100.0 134.7
06 February 2009 $222.40 56.1 70.2 90.4 116.6 90.8
05 January 2009 $292.24 12.1 14.6 18.3 12.9
02 December 2008 $316.00
29 October 2008 $440.72
18 September 2008 $635.88 8,480.7 >10,000 >10,000

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 01 Jul 2026 05:06. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 30 Jun 2026.