United States Oil Fund (USO) 50 Day Lows

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: -5.69%.   Win rate: 79.41%.   Mean CAGR: 125.01%. Time in market: 40 years 1 day.
Sharpe Ratio: -3.44. Maximum drawdown: 84.56% on 28 April 2020.

About this Chart's Calculations for Oil

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (79.41% * 6.1%) - (20.59% * 51.19%) = -5.69%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

50 Day Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 48 55 57 82 192
2024 22 23 25 78
2023 51 52 53 70 134
2022 4 6 22 48 267
2021 12 12 20 33 46
2020 93 94 95 126 143
2019 204 212 219
2018 32 44 46 65 106
2017 103 109 162 195 237
2016 14 30 31 11 49
2015 58 57 57 60 66
2014 21 29 32 40
2013 126 127 67 132 94
2012 55 58 63 79 269
2011 133 135 96 51 102
2010 113 115 116 118 271
2009 28 29 31 35 114
2008 11 11 12 13 165
2007 49 63 113 123 171
2006 150 155 157 293 305
Avg. Days 66 70 73 86 160
CAGR 31% 35.5% 43.6% 49.9% 51.6%

50 Day Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 December 2025 $66.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 October 2025 $71.91 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 April 2025 $65.81 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 March 2025 $71.41 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 September 2024 $71.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
03 June 2024 $72.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
12 December 2023 $64.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 November 2023 $72.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 March 2023 $63.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 December 2022 $63.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 September 2022 $68.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
06 July 2022 $73.58 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
30 November 2021 $48.26 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 August 2021 $46.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 August 2021 $46.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 October 2020 $25.26 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 September 2020 $26.82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 April 2020 $33.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 February 2020 $82.28 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 January 2020 $93.04 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 May 2019 $97.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
17 December 2018 $85.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 October 2018 $111.12 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 June 2017 $75.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 May 2017 $79.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 March 2017 $87.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 November 2016 $78.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
19 July 2016 $85.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 January 2016 $66.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 December 2015 $86.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
12 November 2015 $107.20 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
05 August 2015 $121.36 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 July 2015 $154.56 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 March 2015 $131.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 January 2015 $136.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 December 2014 $167.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 November 2014 $233.52 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 October 2014 $257.24 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 September 2014 $275.96 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
31 July 2014 $292.82 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 January 2014 $265.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
01 November 2013 $274.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
30 September 2013 $293.32 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 April 2013 $253.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 October 2012 $256.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 June 2012 $251.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
04 May 2012 $300.52 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
22 September 2011 $250.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 August 2011 $277.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 June 2011 $306.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 May 2011 $312.44 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 February 2011 $289.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 August 2010 $261.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 May 2010 $299.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 February 2010 $280.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
11 December 2009 $284.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
02 February 2009 $227.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 December 2008 $267.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 November 2008 $402.32 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 October 2008 $580.36 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
02 September 2008 $703.88 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 July 2008 $792.04 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 February 2008 $553.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 May 2007 $383.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 January 2007 $403.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 November 2006 $405.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 October 2006 $431.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
28 August 2006 $521.68 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank

50 Day Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 December 2025 $66.46 1,173.1 142.6 156.5 246.4 178.4
02 October 2025 $71.91 16.4 19.9 25.1 34.3 55.8
07 April 2025 $65.81 227.9 46.2 55.3 70.8 170.0
05 March 2025 $71.41 143.6 126.6 166.0 41.6 20.2
03 September 2024 $71.62 77.6 98.6 117.3 31.2
03 June 2024 $72.88 256.8 312.9 373.0 246.4
12 December 2023 $64.59 1,846.3 3,361.7 2,602.7 120.5 97.2
07 November 2023 $72.40 14.9 17.5 21.9 26.7
14 March 2023 $63.48 143.6 189.7 274.7 469.5 47.6
08 December 2022 $63.66 1,845.4 413.6 480.2 138.6 28.3
07 September 2022 $68.40 3,423.1 6,938.2 140.9 84.1
06 July 2022 $73.58 >10,000 >10,000
30 November 2021 $48.26 1,172.8 1,987.2 2,598.7 262.8 370.0
18 August 2021 $46.06 227.8 312.9 165.8 162.9 300.0
18 August 2021 $46.06 227.8 312.9 165.8 162.9 300.0
29 October 2020 $25.26 3,422.2 6,943.7 7,959.4 2,263.1 1,193.0
08 September 2020 $26.82 826.7 1,327.7 1,788.7 58.1 97.2
17 April 2020 $33.42 6.9 8.2 10.2 12.7 24.4
26 February 2020 $82.28
23 January 2020 $93.04
29 May 2019 $97.08 9.1 10.6 12.8
17 December 2018 $85.36 74.5 62.2 77.5 70.8 87.3
31 October 2018 $111.12
08 June 2017 $75.32 44.9 54.3 69.6 37.6 55.4
03 May 2017 $79.56 155.3 206.3 16.1 21.1 32.1
08 March 2017 $87.12 7.6 8.6 10.6 12.5 23.0
11 November 2016 $78.60 493.5 738.8 1,303.9 469.4
19 July 2016 $85.96 77.6 30.9 37.5
20 January 2016 $66.32 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 288.9
17 December 2015 $86.76 12.9 15.1 19.1 24.3
12 November 2015 $107.20
05 August 2015 $121.36 31.5
01 July 2015 $154.56
16 March 2015 $131.28 493.5 738.9 1,302.4 3,142.1 755.6
23 January 2015 $136.72 493.5 738.8 1,299.5 2,263.1 92.0
16 December 2014 $167.80
12 November 2014 $233.52
10 October 2014 $257.24
08 September 2014 $275.96
31 July 2014 $292.82
09 January 2014 $265.08 133.5 108.2 128.2 138.6
01 November 2013 $274.32 17.7 21.5 26.8 18.9
30 September 2013 $293.32 7.2 8.7
15 April 2013 $253.72 256.8 225.9 215.1 72.2 103.0
23 October 2012 $256.44 28.5 31.8 35.9 42.1 28.1
08 June 2012 $251.96 57.9 72.5 90.4 78.6
04 May 2012 $300.52
22 September 2011 $250.12 169.0 162.9 232.0 196.6 288.9
04 August 2011 $277.38 20.6 25.1 31.7 40.2 38.6
15 June 2011 $306.16 7.4 8.8 11.0
06 May 2011 $312.44 6.2 7.5
11 February 2011 $289.32 404.8 591.3 802.4 590.8 235.3
23 August 2010 $261.40 59.8 75.0 96.8 124.6 43.6
06 May 2010 $299.56 6.3 7.4 9.2 12.2 20.4
08 February 2010 $280.68 826.3 1,327.6 1,778.1 2,263.1
11 December 2009 $284.48 341.1 413.5 372.6 469.4
02 February 2009 $227.36 48.5 60.4 77.5 100.5 79.3
18 December 2008 $267.00 169.0 225.9 333.6 524.0 24.7
07 November 2008 $402.32
06 October 2008 $580.36
02 September 2008 $703.88
29 July 2008 $792.04
07 February 2008 $553.64 8,480.7 >10,000 4,241.2 7,636.4 976.9
07 May 2007 $383.64 256.8 75.0 87.5 92.8 120.8
03 January 2007 $403.28 23.3 27.0 15.4 19.6 29.4
17 November 2006 $405.60 341.1 413.5 661.8 15.5 24.4
03 October 2006 $431.44 6.4 7.4 9.2 10.6
28 August 2006 $521.68

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 22 Apr 2026 11:17. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 20 Apr 2026.