United States Oil Fund (USO) 26 Week Lows

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: -4.59%.   Win rate: 79.49%.   Mean CAGR: 122.31%. Time in market: 23 years 168 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -2.262. Maximum drawdown: 77.47% on 11 February 2016.

About this Chart's Calculations for Oil

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (79.49% * 5.86%) - (20.51% * 45.09%) = -4.59%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

26 Week Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 7 24 28 28 65
2024 29 29 30 33
2023 12 13 15 16 138
2022 5 9 22 48 267
2020 141 143 272 291 305
2018 98 105 46 65 106
2017 29 30 32 64 176
2016 56 59 59 61 90
2015 62 62 65 65 31
2014 21 29 32 40
2013 8 9 16 58 89
2012 13 26 27 29
2011 40 41 42 92 126
2010 77 77 78 177 289
2009 45 45 46 50 114
2008 7 7 7 10 169
2007 85 89 184 194 258
2006 145 147 151 288 305
Avg. Days 48 52 64 89 168
CAGR 44.9% 50.5% 51.1% 47.8% 48.6%

26 Week Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 December 2025 $66.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 April 2025 $67.41 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 September 2024 $70.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
15 March 2023 $60.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 December 2022 $63.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 September 2022 $68.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
17 April 2020 $33.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 March 2020 $71.88 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
03 February 2020 $84.94 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
17 December 2018 $85.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 November 2018 $103.32 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
08 June 2017 $75.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 May 2017 $76.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 February 2016 $63.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 January 2016 $81.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 December 2015 $99.64 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 July 2015 $125.84 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 March 2015 $131.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 January 2015 $152.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
01 December 2014 $206.50 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 October 2014 $243.72 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 September 2014 $274.40 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 August 2014 $280.68 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 January 2014 $265.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
17 April 2013 $249.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 June 2012 $248.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 May 2012 $285.28 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
22 September 2011 $250.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 August 2011 $277.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 June 2011 $283.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
17 May 2010 $273.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 February 2009 $227.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 December 2008 $253.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 November 2008 $359.44 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
17 October 2008 $469.08 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 September 2008 $613.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
03 January 2007 $403.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 November 2006 $405.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 October 2006 $425.20 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank

26 Week Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 December 2025 $66.46 1,173.1 142.6 156.5 246.4 178.4
04 April 2025 $67.41 32.7 38.0 47.5 65.6 145.8
04 September 2024 $70.12 84.8 108.2 140.9 187.0
15 March 2023 $60.14 341.1 413.4 481.0 779.6 62.0
08 December 2022 $63.66 1,845.4 413.6 480.2 138.6 28.3
07 September 2022 $68.40 3,423.1 6,938.2 140.9 84.1
17 April 2020 $33.42 6.9 8.2 10.2 12.7 24.4
06 March 2020 $71.88
03 February 2020 $84.94 204.4 249.4
17 December 2018 $85.36 74.5 62.2 77.5 70.8 87.3
08 November 2018 $103.32 11.4 13.7
08 June 2017 $75.32 44.9 54.3 69.6 37.6 55.4
04 May 2017 $76.84 404.8 591.2 480.6 524.0 39.0
10 February 2016 $63.72 1,845.4 1,986.7 4,245.7 7,636.4 1,193.0
06 January 2016 $81.64 18.1 20.9 26.6 35.7 54.1
04 December 2015 $99.64
27 July 2015 $125.84
16 March 2015 $131.28 493.5 738.9 1,302.4 3,142.1 755.6
05 January 2015 $152.48 16.7 20.3 24.6 33.3
01 December 2014 $206.50
27 October 2014 $243.72
22 September 2014 $274.40
18 August 2014 $280.68
09 January 2014 $265.08 133.5 108.2 128.2 138.6
17 April 2013 $249.68 826.3 962.4 420.8 82.2 111.2
20 June 2012 $248.16 293.5 126.6 165.8 231.9
14 May 2012 $285.28
22 September 2011 $250.12 169.0 162.9 232.0 196.6 288.9
04 August 2011 $277.38 20.6 25.1 31.7 40.2 38.6
27 June 2011 $283.88 826.3 1,327.6 1,300.7 27.8
17 May 2010 $273.32 26.0 31.8 40.3 21.7 25.9
02 February 2009 $227.36 48.5 60.4 77.5 100.5 79.3
22 December 2008 $253.88 404.8 591.4 1,001.9 1,100.0 48.3
18 November 2008 $359.44
17 October 2008 $469.08
15 September 2008 $613.40 8,480.7 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
03 January 2007 $403.28 23.3 27.0 15.4 19.6 29.4
17 November 2006 $405.60 341.1 413.5 661.8 15.5 24.4
11 October 2006 $425.20 6.6 7.9 9.6 10.9

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 22 Apr 2026 11:17. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 20 Apr 2026.