United States Oil Fund (USO) 52 Week Lows

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: -8.02%.   Win rate: 69.57%.   Mean CAGR: 111.35%. Time in market: 17 years 333 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -1.823. Maximum drawdown: 76.13% on 28 April 2020.

About this Chart's Calculations for Oil

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (69.57% * 6.14%) - (30.43% * 40.4%) = -8.02%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

52 Week Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2023 12 13 15 16 138
2020 141 143 272 291 305
2018 69 70 88 91 133
2017 48 49 50 109 151
2016 56 59 59 61 90
2015 10 10 10 10 66
2011 10 14 15 54 73
2010 6 7 20 26 215
2009 45 45 46 50 114
2008 11 11 11 14 169
Avg. Days 40 42 58 72 145
CAGR 56.1% 65.9% 57.6% 62.1% 58.2%

52 Week Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 April 2025 $67.41 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 March 2023 $60.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 April 2020 $33.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 March 2020 $71.88 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
03 February 2020 $84.94 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 November 2018 $86.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 June 2017 $75.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 February 2016 $63.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 January 2016 $81.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 December 2015 $99.64 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 July 2015 $125.84 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 March 2015 $131.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 January 2015 $136.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 December 2014 $167.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 November 2014 $233.52 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 October 2014 $259.04 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 September 2011 $250.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 August 2011 $254.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 May 2010 $256.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 February 2009 $227.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 December 2008 $253.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 November 2008 $359.44 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 October 2008 $492.48 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

52 Week Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 April 2025 $67.41 32.7 38.0 47.5 65.6 145.8
15 March 2023 $60.14 341.1 413.4 481.0 779.6 62.0
17 April 2020 $33.42 6.9 8.2 10.2 12.7 24.4
06 March 2020 $71.88
03 February 2020 $84.94 204.4 249.4
23 November 2018 $86.84 29.4 35.5 35.0 46.6 64.9
08 June 2017 $75.32 44.9 54.3 69.6 37.6 55.4
10 February 2016 $63.72 1,845.4 1,986.7 4,245.7 7,636.4 1,193.0
06 January 2016 $81.64 18.1 20.9 26.6 35.7 54.1
04 December 2015 $99.64
27 July 2015 $125.84
16 March 2015 $131.28 493.5 738.9 1,302.4 3,142.1 755.6
23 January 2015 $136.72 493.5 738.8 1,299.5 2,263.1 92.0
16 December 2014 $167.80
12 November 2014 $233.52
09 October 2014 $259.04
22 September 2011 $250.12 169.0 162.9 232.0 196.6 288.9
09 August 2011 $254.36 >10,000 3,363.2 2,611.6 57.1 97.2
21 May 2010 $256.40 1,845.4 1,987.0 274.3 281.1 36.3
02 February 2009 $227.36 48.5 60.4 77.5 100.5 79.3
22 December 2008 $253.88 404.8 591.4 1,001.9 1,100.0 48.3
18 November 2008 $359.44
15 October 2008 $492.48

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 30 Apr 2026 07:46. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 29 Apr 2026.