United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI) Mega Dump Lite

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: -0.38%.   Win rate: 75.00%.   Mean CAGR: 88.31%. Time in market: 16 years 118 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -3.456. Maximum drawdown: 28.60% on 06 May 2015.

About this Chart's Calculations for United States Commodities

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (75% * 5.15%) - (25% * 16.97%) = -0.38%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump Lite - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2026 16 21 29 39 67
2025 35 36 122 163 259
2023 72 73 77 116
2022 24 26 192 47
2021 17 22 29 37 78
2020 97 98 99 106 240
2011 51 133 147
2010 32 33 39 45 83
Avg. Days 43 55 91 79 145
CAGR 51.3% 47.2% 33.7% 55.3% 58.2%

Mega Dump Lite - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
29 June 2026 $91.74 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 March 2026 $89.90 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
05 February 2026 $80.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 May 2025 $71.78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 April 2025 $67.26 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 May 2023 $53.80 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
01 August 2022 $53.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
28 June 2022 $56.44 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
19 April 2022 $58.64 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
18 March 2022 $54.41 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
06 December 2021 $40.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 April 2020 $25.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 March 2020 $29.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 February 2020 $33.13 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
07 May 2015 $47.15 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
19 December 2014 $49.82 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 November 2011 $61.02 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 September 2011 $59.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
16 August 2011 $63.50 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 July 2011 $66.78 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
13 June 2011 $67.02 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 May 2011 $67.44 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 March 2011 $68.74 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
21 December 2010 $63.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
19 November 2010 $57.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

Mega Dump Lite - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
29 June 2026 $91.74
10 March 2026 $89.90 493.5 249.4 117.3 100.5
05 February 2026 $80.94 124.7 134.1 187.7 231.9 170.0
13 May 2025 $71.78 66.3 80.5 24.1 23.8 29.3
11 April 2025 $67.26 256.8 94.4 60.2 73.7 27.3
08 May 2023 $53.80 28.1 33.8 40.9 35.0
01 August 2022 $53.60 124.7 152.1 7.7
28 June 2022 $56.44
19 April 2022 $58.64 48.5 53.0
18 March 2022 $54.41 3,424.5 3,364.4 165.8 109.6
06 December 2021 $40.88 185.1 163.0 148.8 156.1 134.7
14 April 2020 $25.96 20.2 24.2 30.6 38.8 32.0
10 March 2020 $29.50 7.1 7.9 9.8 12.5 21.4
06 February 2020 $33.13
07 May 2015 $47.15
19 December 2014 $49.82
01 November 2011 $61.02 16.9
28 September 2011 $59.03 155.3 17.3 19.7
16 August 2011 $63.50
15 July 2011 $66.78
13 June 2011 $67.02
10 May 2011 $67.44
18 March 2011 $68.74 133.5
21 December 2010 $63.65 54.4 65.9 73.2 82.2
19 November 2010 $57.76 110.0 142.6 134.5 196.6 122.9

The data for United States Commodity Index Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USCI) was last updated 01 Jul 2026 05:06. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Aug 2010 - 30 Jun 2026.