United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) Mega Dump Lite

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 5.54%.   Win rate: 100%.   Mean CAGR: 163.56%. Time in market: 6 years 271 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -6.091. Maximum drawdown: 29.51% on 09 December 2022.

About this Chart's Calculations for Gasoline

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (100% * 5.54%) - (0% * 0%) = 5.54%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump Lite - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 42 46 49 89 200
2024 48 59 83 71 86
2023 44 61 69 92 121
2022 72 73 75 93 148
2021 27 30 34 47 98
Avg. Days 46 53 62 78 130
CAGR 47.3% 49.4% 53.1% 56.2% 66.8%

Mega Dump Lite - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
22 December 2025 $62.85 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 November 2025 $68.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 October 2025 $61.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 August 2025 $63.34 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 June 2025 $60.35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 May 2025 $60.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 April 2025 $55.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 March 2025 $59.27 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 October 2024 $61.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
24 September 2024 $60.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
23 August 2024 $62.77 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
18 June 2024 $66.15 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
16 May 2024 $67.16 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
17 January 2024 $61.07 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 December 2023 $61.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
13 November 2023 $62.79 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
10 October 2023 $63.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
16 May 2023 $57.34 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 April 2023 $64.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 March 2023 $56.93 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 February 2023 $59.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 December 2022 $57.31 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 November 2022 $58.80 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 September 2022 $52.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 August 2022 $58.53 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 July 2022 $63.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
23 June 2022 $70.66 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
19 April 2022 $57.81 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 March 2022 $55.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 December 2021 $41.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 November 2021 $41.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 August 2021 $34.78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 July 2021 $35.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 April 2021 $31.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 March 2021 $31.35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

Mega Dump Lite - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
22 December 2025 $62.85 81.1 77.7 104.0 144.0 158.7
18 November 2025 $68.65 19.3 23.4 28.9 39.7 86.3
15 October 2025 $61.56 293.5 413.6 333.8 302.1 62.5
01 August 2025 $63.34 20.4 24.8 29.9 20.0 36.9
30 June 2025 $60.35 826.1 108.2 140.9 31.2 31.8
13 May 2025 $60.72 77.6 83.6 112.5 149.8 25.6
11 April 2025 $55.72 404.8 356.8 134.4 76.9 158.7
11 March 2025 $59.27 227.9 277.8 251.8 42.6 21.2
31 October 2024 $61.30 32.1 34.9 42.2 58.0
24 September 2024 $60.66 293.4 413.5 27.9 36.4
23 August 2024 $62.77 13.3 15.9 20.1
18 June 2024 $66.15 256.9
16 May 2024 $67.16
17 January 2024 $61.07 826.7 1,327.3 1,778.1 281.1 116.8
15 December 2023 $61.64 54.4 65.9 61.6 78.6
13 November 2023 $62.79 22.7 27.7 33.7 33.0
10 October 2023 $63.56 493.6 18.7 18.7 25.0
16 May 2023 $57.34 1,173.3 1,327.3 2,615.7 207.2 174.1
14 April 2023 $64.38 20.2 24.2 30.9 41.1
14 March 2023 $56.93 256.9 356.9 274.3 469.4 67.5
08 February 2023 $59.54 39.1 46.2 53.1 25.2 48.6
27 December 2022 $57.31 185.1 175.4 251.7 326.1 38.1
22 November 2022 $58.80 37.4 43.4 56.5 28.0 31.4
30 September 2022 $52.50 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 651.3
29 August 2022 $58.53 35.2 43.4 50.1 69.4 22.4
26 July 2022 $63.04 5.1 6.1 7.6 10.1
23 June 2022 $70.66
19 April 2022 $57.81 623.6 962.7 560.1 916.8 1,500.3
17 March 2022 $55.86 8,480.7 3,364.3 8,045.2 128.9 228.2
28 December 2021 $41.30 227.8 312.8 373.0 231.9 338.8
23 November 2021 $41.38 42.8 53.0 66.2 72.2 129.8
24 August 2021 $34.78 1,844.6 738.7 231.4 149.8 300.0
22 July 2021 $35.86 38.2 34.9 44.9 60.0 118.8
26 April 2021 $31.70 >10,000 >10,000 2,619.3 162.8 52.4
24 March 2021 $31.35 66.4 80.5 108.1 128.9 46.3

The data for United States Gasoline Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: UGA) was last updated 06 Mar 2026 15:00. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 05 Mar 2026.