Invesco Solar (TAN) Mega Dump Lite

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: -1.35%.   Win rate: 85.11%.   Mean CAGR: 163.57%. Time in market: 19 years 73 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -1.93. Maximum drawdown: 64.32% on 09 April 2025.

About this Chart's Calculations for Solar Energy

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (85.11% * 7.02%) - (14.89% * 49.18%) = -1.35%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump Lite - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 52 52 55 61 98
2024 36 59 93 128 236
2023 31 31 32 36
2022 37 38 46 48 78
2021 18 53 55 55 101
Avg. Days 34 46 56 65 128
CAGR 68.8% 58.8% 60.2% 70.8% 68.2%

Mega Dump Lite - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
30 December 2025 $49.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 November 2025 $47.61 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 August 2025 $36.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 July 2025 $34.90 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 May 2025 $31.74 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 April 2025 $29.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 March 2025 $32.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 February 2025 $35.63 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 January 2025 $34.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 December 2024 $34.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 November 2024 $35.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 October 2024 $38.82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 September 2024 $38.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
06 August 2024 $39.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
05 July 2024 $40.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
29 May 2024 $47.21 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
26 April 2024 $40.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 March 2024 $43.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
23 February 2024 $42.34 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
22 January 2024 $43.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
17 November 2023 $45.77 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
16 October 2023 $48.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
12 September 2023 $56.14 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 August 2023 $63.09 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 May 2023 $72.72 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 April 2023 $75.46 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 March 2023 $75.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 February 2023 $78.88 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 January 2023 $73.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
01 November 2022 $72.45 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
28 September 2022 $76.55 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 July 2022 $73.09 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 June 2022 $74.31 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 May 2022 $67.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 April 2022 $72.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 March 2022 $75.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 February 2022 $61.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 January 2022 $71.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 December 2021 $86.98 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 October 2021 $79.22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 August 2021 $82.34 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 July 2021 $84.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 June 2021 $81.07 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 May 2021 $70.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 April 2021 $87.10 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
08 March 2021 $83.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 February 2021 $115.50 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

Mega Dump Lite - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
30 December 2025 $49.96 116.9 152.1 200.6 326.1 278.5
26 November 2025 $47.61 98.4 126.6 93.4 84.1 187.6
08 August 2025 $36.86 493.3 738.9 1,301.1 3,143.6 242.9
01 July 2025 $34.90 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 178.4
28 May 2025 $31.74 623.6 488.4 664.9 524.2 535.1
25 April 2025 $29.42 256.7 357.0 371.9 674.2 259.6
25 March 2025 $32.04 43.8 54.3 69.6 95.2 89.6
19 February 2025 $35.63 14.2 17.2 21.1 25.5 39.9
17 January 2025 $34.70 11.3 13.6 17.1 23.2 35.1
16 December 2024 $34.46 9.4 11.3 14.2 19.1 30.2
12 November 2024 $35.12 143.6 9.6 12.0 15.6 25.1
11 October 2024 $38.82 110.0 142.6 8.6 11.2 20.1
09 September 2024 $38.44 8,475.9 1,328.0 1,781.4 591.0
06 August 2024 $39.24 185.1 189.6 66.2 88.2
05 July 2024 $40.30 1,846.1 3,364.4 4,257.4
29 May 2024 $47.21
26 April 2024 $40.42 1,173.1 738.7 333.1 281.1 569.5
26 March 2024 $43.28 35.9 44.3 52.0 73.7
23 February 2024 $42.34 293.5 356.7 560.7 44.2
22 January 2024 $43.28 133.5 175.3 252.0 31.5
17 November 2023 $45.77 93.4 119.8 165.6 246.4
16 October 2023 $48.54 35.2 43.4 52.1 63.2
12 September 2023 $56.14
10 August 2023 $63.09
15 May 2023 $72.72
11 April 2023 $75.46
10 March 2023 $75.80
06 February 2023 $78.88
03 January 2023 $73.04 826.5 1,327.4 2,606.1 4,673.2
01 November 2022 $72.45 623.5 962.4 1,774.7 4,672.0
28 September 2022 $76.55 46.1 57.2 53.1
26 July 2022 $73.09 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 8,347.8
24 June 2022 $74.31 68.9 86.9 117.3 178.2 300.0
23 May 2022 $67.72 826.3 738.7 1,002.5 1,100.0 174.1
19 April 2022 $72.40 44.9 55.8 30.2 41.6 80.2
18 March 2022 $75.18 14.4 17.5 22.1 30.2
14 February 2022 $61.92 >10,000 591.4 559.3 1,100.2 1,959.2
11 January 2022 $71.30 36.7 45.2 58.9 52.1 37.5
08 December 2021 $86.98
07 October 2021 $79.22 3,421.5 6,939.1 8,059.3 >10,000 2,278.2
24 August 2021 $82.34 623.4 53.0 60.2 84.1 166.1
21 July 2021 $84.84 21.9 26.7 30.9 42.6
14 June 2021 $81.07 404.9 356.8 558.9 916.8 62.5
11 May 2021 $70.59 623.5 962.2 1,774.1 3,142.1 353.8
08 April 2021 $87.10 168.9 11.1 14.0 18.7
08 March 2021 $83.02 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 32.3
02 February 2021 $115.50 826.2

The data for Invesco Solar (exchange: ARCX symbol: TAN) was last updated 06 Mar 2026 14:59. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 05 Mar 2026.