VanEck Oil Services (OIH) Mega Dump Lite

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 4.98%.   Win rate: 97.62%.   Mean CAGR: 150.63%. Time in market: 12 years 274 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -4.367. Maximum drawdown: 40.02% on 07 April 2025.

About this Chart's Calculations for Oil Services

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (97.62% * 5.67%) - (2.38% * 22.94%) = 4.98%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump Lite - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 92 92 106 116 170
2024 20 21 27 32 75
2023 43 82 84 79 112
2022 36 37 49 76 124
2021 57 58 61 62 130
Avg. Days 49 58 65 73 122
CAGR 43.8% 44.3% 50.1% 61.1% 72.5%

Mega Dump Lite - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
30 December 2025 $285.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 August 2025 $235.87 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 July 2025 $250.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 June 2025 $232.34 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 May 2025 $216.55 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 April 2025 $243.73 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 March 2025 $260.22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 January 2025 $282.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 December 2024 $264.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
15 November 2024 $294.75 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
14 October 2024 $294.78 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
10 September 2024 $271.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
08 August 2024 $296.69 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
01 July 2024 $314.68 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
28 May 2024 $319.58 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
23 April 2024 $324.22 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
19 January 2024 $288.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 December 2023 $310.93 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
13 November 2023 $320.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 October 2023 $337.50 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
05 June 2023 $271.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 May 2023 $263.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 March 2023 $277.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 February 2023 $312.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
04 January 2023 $287.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 November 2022 $304.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 October 2022 $243.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 September 2022 $250.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 August 2022 $229.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 July 2022 $210.81 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 June 2022 $298.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
28 April 2022 $271.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 March 2022 $268.63 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 December 2021 $189.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 November 2021 $191.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 August 2021 $189.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 July 2021 $192.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 June 2021 $229.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 May 2021 $216.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 April 2021 $191.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 March 2021 $218.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
01 February 2021 $164.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

Mega Dump Lite - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
30 December 2025 $285.70 1,845.5 3,363.1 8,037.6 3,142.3 1,500.3
12 August 2025 $235.87 293.5 413.5 420.6 207.2 137.3
11 July 2025 $250.42 26.8 31.8 28.9 39.3 58.2
09 June 2025 $232.34 8,481.5 >10,000 128.2 103.4 60.3
06 May 2025 $216.55 1,845.7 3,362.9 112.6 170.2 60.3
03 April 2025 $243.73 12.8 14.1 16.4 18.7 35.1
03 March 2025 $260.22 7.9 9.5 11.6 15.3 24.1
28 January 2025 $282.32 5.9 7.1 8.9 10.7 20.4
26 December 2024 $264.62 826.3 488.5 301.3 469.4
15 November 2024 $294.75
14 October 2024 $294.78
10 September 2024 $271.86 623.3 962.5 559.0 326.1
08 August 2024 $296.69
01 July 2024 $314.68 227.8 277.8
28 May 2024 $319.58 32.1
23 April 2024 $324.22
19 January 2024 $288.50 1,845.5 55.8 71.4 90.5 142.9
15 December 2023 $310.93 20.6 24.8 28.9 37.6
13 November 2023 $320.00 14.0 16.3 20.4
09 October 2023 $337.50
05 June 2023 $271.60 103.9 113.7 141.1 170.2 370.0
02 May 2023 $263.06 64.0 44.3 56.4 75.3 158.7
30 March 2023 $277.66 8,480.0 24.0 29.5 40.6 76.6
27 February 2023 $312.38 1,173.1 15.6 19.5 23.8
04 January 2023 $287.68 >10,000 6,936.6 >10,000 >10,000 35.5
30 November 2022 $304.28 51.3 62.2 82.2 15.8
14 October 2022 $243.76 3,422.0 3,363.0 8,046.0 >10,000 >10,000
12 September 2022 $250.18 59.8 72.5 96.7 128.9 288.9
09 August 2022 $229.59 256.8 356.8 481.2 779.6 140.0
06 July 2022 $210.81 >10,000 >10,000 251.5 386.1 278.5
01 June 2022 $298.65 11.9 14.3 12.5 16.4
28 April 2022 $271.38 88.9 113.7 156.7 187.0 29.3
18 March 2022 $268.63 3,422.7 1,987.1 372.5 281.1 24.8
28 December 2021 $189.24 1,173.2 1,986.9 2,611.7 4,672.5 2,278.2
24 November 2021 $191.36 54.4 68.0 87.5 120.5 187.6
30 August 2021 $189.48 84.8 108.2 112.6 170.2 60.9
27 July 2021 $192.58 32.7 36.1 46.6 64.4 44.1
23 June 2021 $229.75 7.9 9.4 11.1 14.7 29.6
10 May 2021 $216.08 116.9 152.1 215.1 326.1 24.8
06 April 2021 $191.28 81.0 103.2 141.0 207.2 221.4
05 March 2021 $218.08 22.2 27.0 34.1 47.2
01 February 2021 $164.46 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 1,500.3

The data for VanEck Oil Services (exchange: ARCX symbol: OIH) was last updated 06 Mar 2026 14:54. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 05 Mar 2026.