iShares US Real Estate (IYR) Mega Dump Lite

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 2.5%.   Win rate: 94.67%.   Mean CAGR: 143.6%. Time in market: 21 years 45 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -2.804. Maximum drawdown: 72.07% on 09 March 2009.

About this Chart's Calculations for US Real Estate

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (94.67% * 5.77%) - (5.33% * 55.66%) = 2.5%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump Lite - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 273 275 339
2024 44 46 80 81 126
2023 66 67 147 126 174
2022 46 47 37 32 113
2021 20 28 57 62 154
2020 28 42 50 85 150
2019 43 52 63 129 353
2018 51 53 71 81 167
2016 28 32 36 51 153
2015 29 31 38 186 292
2013 197 212 229 288 288
2011 21 35 54 88 196
2010 39 42 63 88 197
2009 20 21 26 34 101
2008 21 54 58 63 117
2007 42 42 49 63
2005 69 90 92 116 250
2004 37 40 56 82 153
2002 24 29 174 228 292
2001 70 71 99 159 198
Avg. Days 58 65 90 107 193
CAGR 35.9% 38.7% 34.1% 38.4% 41.2%

Mega Dump Lite - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2025 $94.09 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 April 2025 $87.95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
27 January 2025 $95.42 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
24 December 2024 $92.98 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
22 April 2024 $82.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 October 2023 $74.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 September 2023 $78.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 April 2023 $84.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
15 March 2023 $83.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 November 2022 $86.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
11 October 2022 $78.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 September 2022 $95.21 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
18 July 2022 $92.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 June 2022 $87.73 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
13 May 2022 $95.98 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
31 January 2022 $105.62 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 April 2021 $84.78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 November 2020 $71.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 September 2020 $72.01 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 July 2020 $69.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 June 2020 $71.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 May 2020 $65.89 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 April 2020 $62.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 March 2020 $82.90 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
29 January 2019 $69.73 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 December 2018 $63.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 February 2018 $60.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
26 February 2016 $54.43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 January 2016 $53.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 September 2015 $52.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 August 2015 $53.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 August 2013 $43.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 July 2013 $46.09 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
07 June 2013 $46.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
30 December 2011 $37.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 November 2011 $34.31 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 October 2011 $33.57 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 September 2011 $35.13 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 August 2011 $34.35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 November 2010 $33.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 August 2010 $32.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 June 2010 $29.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 May 2010 $29.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 November 2009 $24.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 October 2009 $24.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 August 2009 $24.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 July 2009 $20.78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 June 2009 $18.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 May 2009 $18.87 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 April 2009 $16.79 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 March 2009 $13.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 January 2009 $18.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 December 2008 $20.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 November 2008 $16.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 October 2008 $23.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
18 September 2008 $34.49 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
11 August 2008 $35.91 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 July 2008 $33.19 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
11 March 2008 $33.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
01 February 2008 $36.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
31 December 2007 $35.25 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
27 November 2007 $34.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
24 October 2007 $39.97 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
05 September 2007 $38.95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
02 August 2007 $38.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
28 June 2007 $41.12 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 April 2007 $45.26 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 March 2007 $44.29 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
17 October 2005 $30.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 August 2005 $31.09 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 May 2004 $21.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 April 2004 $22.33 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 October 2002 $15.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 July 2002 $16.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 September 2001 $15.15 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

Mega Dump Lite - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2025 $94.09 6.7 8.0 8.1
10 April 2025 $87.95 293.5 189.6 232.2 40.2
27 January 2025 $95.42
24 December 2024 $92.98 31.0 36.1
22 April 2024 $82.46 124.7 152.1 39.1 53.7 69.6
31 October 2023 $74.96 >10,000 >10,000 559.5 262.7 353.8
29 September 2023 $78.68 35.9 42.5 53.1 70.8 24.4
17 April 2023 $84.02 23.0 27.3 11.6
15 March 2023 $83.50 16.3 19.6 10.1 12.8
14 November 2022 $86.86 27.2 30.9 39.1
11 October 2022 $78.18 204.3 249.4 274.4 231.9 80.2
07 September 2022 $95.21
18 July 2022 $92.58 493.5 738.9 1,000.7 302.1
14 June 2022 $87.73 493.6 738.9 104.1 120.5
13 May 2022 $95.98 22.2 26.3
31 January 2022 $105.62 25.3 30.5
01 April 2021 $84.78 143.6 113.7 58.9 75.3 54.1
02 November 2020 $71.06 1,173.1 1,987.6 1,002.3 1,100.0 129.8
28 September 2020 $72.01 404.9 62.2 71.4 42.6 74.1
14 July 2020 $69.58 227.8 119.9 51.0 33.0 46.6
12 June 2020 $71.75 16.1 15.0 18.3 18.4 34.1
11 May 2020 $65.89 204.4 162.9 231.8 353.8 32.3
07 April 2020 $62.88 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 100.5 192.5
04 March 2020 $82.90 5.5 6.5 8.0
29 January 2019 $69.73 51.3 50.5 52.0 31.0 20.7
28 December 2018 $63.98 143.6 175.4 134.2 178.2 49.0
13 February 2018 $60.86 23.9 28.1 26.9 31.0
26 February 2016 $54.43 256.9 206.3 273.8 149.8 62.0
25 January 2016 $53.88 51.3 58.8 66.2 70.8 48.6
29 September 2015 $52.60 826.4 738.9 273.9 22.7 27.4
27 August 2015 $53.36 42.8 49.4 58.9 18.7 24.0
22 August 2013 $43.18 93.4 113.8 59.0 21.3 26.0
09 July 2013 $46.09 7.8 7.9 9.3 11.4
07 June 2013 $46.96 5.6 6.7 8.2 10.0
30 December 2011 $37.18 98.4 119.8 112.5 46.6 29.3
28 November 2011 $34.31 124.6 152.1 200.2 100.5 68.9
17 October 2011 $33.57 1,173.7 1,985.6 1,298.0 3,140.9 84.1
13 September 2011 $35.13 49.9 23.4 23.3 29.9 33.4
11 August 2011 $34.35 1,844.3 189.6 40.8 24.5 29.4
19 November 2010 $33.28 57.9 60.4 47.3 60.0 33.6
02 August 2010 $32.56 28.1 30.9 32.5 21.7 28.2
29 June 2010 $29.62 93.4 119.8 157.0 170.2 67.5
26 May 2010 $29.65 155.2 189.6 53.0 65.6 50.4
03 November 2009 $24.32 826.4 413.4 659.4 207.2 68.9
02 October 2009 $24.06 1,173.3 739.4 79.6 76.9 52.8
31 August 2009 $24.02 227.7 312.7 422.5 673.7 42.2
28 July 2009 $20.78 1,173.0 1,987.7 2,612.6 7,634.9 288.9
25 June 2009 $18.72 98.4 113.7 148.0 196.6 406.9
18 May 2009 $18.87 257.0 356.7 484.4 590.8 132.2
06 April 2009 $16.79 1,174.6 739.6 1,296.9 2,262.3 228.1
03 March 2009 $13.52 826.9 1,327.7 2,612.8 4,677.2 755.5
30 January 2009 $18.32 21.9 26.7 32.2 33.0 43.0
29 December 2008 $20.00 8,482.6 10.4 12.9 17.3 35.1
24 November 2008 $16.52 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
21 October 2008 $23.70 5.6 6.7 8.4 11.1
18 September 2008 $34.49 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
11 August 2008 $35.91 57.9 72.5
08 July 2008 $33.19 227.7 108.2 117.0 61.1
11 March 2008 $33.68 293.5 413.5 664.2 386.1
01 February 2008 $36.02 26.0 28.8 36.9
31 December 2007 $35.25 21.1 25.7 27.4 34.0
27 November 2007 $34.86 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 3,143.7
24 October 2007 $39.97
05 September 2007 $38.95 98.3 126.6 166.0
02 August 2007 $38.03 44.9 55.8 55.2 76.9
28 June 2007 $41.12
10 April 2007 $45.26
08 March 2007 $44.29
17 October 2005 $30.03 74.5 83.6 103.8 54.5 56.3
11 August 2005 $31.09 18.3 15.7 19.5 25.5 20.9
18 May 2004 $21.58 623.1 738.8 134.0 149.8 81.2
16 April 2004 $22.33 31.0 35.5 38.6 31.8 40.7
11 October 2002 $15.66 48.5 49.4 37.0 20.6 32.3
26 July 2002 $16.14 8,483.0 6,925.8 10.5 13.7 21.2
26 September 2001 $15.15 29.0 34.9 30.6 24.5 40.0

The data for iShares US Real Estate (exchange: ARCX symbol: IYR) was last updated 22 Apr 2026 11:24. Data for this ETF is available from 19 Jun 2000 - 20 Apr 2026.