iShares China Large Cap (FXI) Super Oversold

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 6.22%.   Win rate: 93.33%.   Mean CAGR: 237.35%. Time in market: 2 years 279 days.
Sharpe Ratio: 0.017. Maximum drawdown: 39.27% on 31 October 2022.

About this Chart's Calculations for China Large Cap

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (93.33% * 8.84%) - (6.67% * 30.57%) = 6.22%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Super Oversold - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2024 2 2 2 30 93
2023 103 110 133 137 151
2022 4 12 12 17 23
2021 12 15 19
Avg. Days 30 34 41 61 89
CAGR 81.1% 86.9% 90.4% 76.9% 111.2%

Super Oversold - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 June 2026 $34.52 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 January 2024 $21.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 December 2023 $23.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 December 2023 $23.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 October 2022 $20.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 October 2022 $21.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 September 2022 $25.80 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 April 2022 $28.90 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
15 March 2022 $26.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 March 2022 $26.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 March 2022 $27.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 March 2022 $31.43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
24 February 2022 $34.48 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
05 January 2022 $35.34 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
20 December 2021 $35.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 July 2021 $38.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

Super Oversold - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 June 2026 $34.52
22 January 2024 $21.04 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 219.0 104.5
20 December 2023 $23.08 29.4 29.2 23.3 31.2 59.8
08 December 2023 $23.75 13.8 16.7 20.7 26.9 51.6
31 October 2022 $20.94 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
24 October 2022 $21.64 493.5 738.3 1,294.3 1,352.7 2,278.2
30 September 2022 $25.80 3,419.9 42.5 55.3 70.8 98.6
25 April 2022 $28.90 8,474.3 >10,000 >10,000 162.9
15 March 2022 $26.76 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
15 March 2022 $26.76 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
14 March 2022 $27.44 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000 >10,000
08 March 2022 $31.43 256.9 175.4 166.1
24 February 2022 $34.48
05 January 2022 $35.34 1,844.6 1,987.9 4,267.0 917.1
20 December 2021 $35.66 116.9 152.1 215.1
27 July 2021 $38.94 >10,000 1,327.3 482.4

The data for iShares China Large Cap (exchange: ARCX symbol: FXI) was last updated 18 Jun 2026 04:06. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 17 Jun 2026.