iShares MSCI South Africa (EZA) Mega Dump Lite

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 4.28%.   Win rate: 92.86%.   Mean CAGR: 134.57%. Time in market: 9 years 104 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -2.737. Maximum drawdown: 25.10% on 05 October 2023.

About this Chart's Calculations for South Africa

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (92.86% * 5.69%) - (7.14% * 14.09%) = 4.28%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump Lite - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2026 21 21 22
2025 17 24 34 68 115
2024 82 83 89 110 191
2023 98 82 89 120 227
2022 56 58 61 50 39
2021 68 92 133 161 175
Avg. Days 57 60 71 101 149
CAGR 36.7% 42.5% 45% 41.1% 56.3%

Mega Dump Lite - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 February 2026 $74.71 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 November 2025 $63.93 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 May 2025 $49.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 April 2025 $42.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 February 2025 $44.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 January 2025 $42.78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 November 2024 $47.41 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 June 2024 $40.85 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 January 2024 $38.20 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 October 2023 $36.55 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 August 2023 $40.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
24 July 2023 $43.12 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 June 2023 $41.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
16 May 2023 $39.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
03 April 2023 $42.58 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
01 March 2023 $42.27 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 December 2022 $42.15 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 October 2022 $36.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 September 2022 $41.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
09 August 2022 $43.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
06 July 2022 $41.41 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
01 June 2022 $48.06 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 April 2022 $47.82 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 December 2021 $45.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 October 2021 $47.13 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
30 August 2021 $48.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
27 July 2021 $46.34 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 June 2021 $49.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default

Mega Dump Lite - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 February 2026 $74.71 133.5 175.3 231.7
06 November 2025 $63.93 1,846.3 1,987.3 112.4 100.5 127.4
13 May 2025 $49.96 204.4 277.9 215.4 65.6 73.3
09 April 2025 $42.84 >10,000 6,939.4 >10,000 >10,000 387.7
04 February 2025 $44.44 256.9 68.0 87.6 52.1 74.1
03 January 2025 $42.78 68.8 86.9 100.1 61.1 62.0
18 November 2024 $47.41 11.4 13.5 15.5 19.9 28.3
12 June 2024 $40.85 1,846.8 3,362.9 2,599.7 218.9 90.8
23 January 2024 $38.20 26.4 32.3 40.9 38.0 38.4
06 October 2023 $36.55 3,425.6 6,936.0 165.7 262.7 34.1
25 August 2023 $40.18 7.1 8.6 10.5 13.8
24 July 2023 $43.12
20 June 2023 $41.30 66.3 83.6 100.2
16 May 2023 $39.08 88.9 108.2 141.1 72.2
03 April 2023 $42.58 16.6
01 March 2023 $42.27 12.7
20 December 2022 $42.15 227.9 312.8 274.1 353.8
14 October 2022 $36.50 341.0 249.3 273.8 353.9 450.9
12 September 2022 $41.86 28.5 34.9 40.2 33.6
09 August 2022 $43.48 12.4 14.8 18.6
06 July 2022 $41.41 68.9 83.6 108.4 156.1
01 June 2022 $48.06
28 April 2022 $47.82
01 December 2021 $45.60 54.4 68.0 87.5 128.9 82.1
01 October 2021 $47.13 256.9 226.0 24.1 28.9
30 August 2021 $48.00 41.8 14.0 17.1 22.7
27 July 2021 $46.34 >10,000 1,987.7 36.9 19.4 32.1
24 June 2021 $49.18 7.9 9.4 11.1 14.1

The data for iShares MSCI South Africa (exchange: ARCX symbol: EZA) was last updated 06 Mar 2026 14:42. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 05 Mar 2026.