Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) Mega Dump Lite

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 5.43%.   Win rate: 100%.   Mean CAGR: 27.67%. Time in market: 2 years 149 days.
Sharpe Ratio: 1.93. Maximum drawdown: 4.45% on 20 January 2023.

About this Chart's Calculations for Agriculture

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (100% * 5.43%) - (0% * 0%) = 5.43%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

Mega Dump Lite - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 75 193
2024 70 72 131 176
2022 296 326 327 349
Avg. Days 147 197 229 262
CAGR 12.9% 11.4% 12.2% 14.2%

Mega Dump Lite - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
06 March 2025 $26.21 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 July 2024 $24.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
10 June 2024 $25.09 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
07 May 2024 $24.33 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
09 August 2022 $20.15 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
08 July 2022 $20.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank

Mega Dump Lite - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
06 March 2025 $26.21 26.8 11.7
12 July 2024 $24.38 29.9 33.8 41.4 28.9
10 June 2024 $25.09 17.9 21.8 16.0 20.3
07 May 2024 $24.33 64.0 77.7 20.5 18.7
09 August 2022 $20.15 7.3 7.1 8.9 10.5
08 July 2022 $20.24 5.4 6.4 8.0

The data for Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: DBA) was last updated 06 Mar 2026 14:33. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 05 Mar 2026.