Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) 50 Day Lows

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: -0.42%.   Win rate: 76.25%.   Mean CAGR: 56.08%. Time in market: 63 years 205 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -13.057. Maximum drawdown: 33.53% on 05 December 2008.

About this Chart's Calculations for Agriculture

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (76.25% * 4.87%) - (23.75% * 17.39%) = -0.42%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

50 Day Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 68 87
2024 22 25 46 53 195
2023 62 65 93 125 125
2022 127 152 184 217
2021 16 17 20 86 194
2020 158 159 169 181 220
2019 86 24 56 95
2018 23
2017 11 28
2016 50 57 113 135
2015 156 137 190 192
2014 26 32 33 35 96
2013 205 207 209 214
2012 87 88 111 97
2011 59 41 21
2010 145 162 165 177 227
2009 20 21 22 63 81
2008 27 30 37 41 189
2007 38 42 48 82 166
Avg. Days 72 76 94 119 165
CAGR 28.1% 32.3% 32.4% 34% 49.7%

50 Day Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
22 December 2025 $25.44 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 October 2025 $26.18 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 June 2025 $26.11 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 April 2025 $25.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
01 August 2024 $23.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 December 2023 $21.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 January 2023 $19.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
09 December 2022 $19.61 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
18 October 2022 $20.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
22 June 2022 $21.39 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
08 July 2021 $17.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 July 2021 $16.82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 March 2021 $16.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 June 2020 $12.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 April 2020 $12.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 March 2020 $14.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 January 2020 $14.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
06 September 2019 $13.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
31 July 2019 $15.04 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
25 April 2019 $15.20 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
11 February 2019 $15.75 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
21 December 2018 $15.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 September 2018 $15.66 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
23 August 2018 $15.78 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
17 July 2018 $16.06 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 June 2018 $17.04 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 April 2018 $17.12 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 December 2017 $17.37 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 August 2017 $17.57 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 June 2017 $17.67 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 March 2017 $18.49 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 December 2016 $18.39 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
30 September 2016 $18.58 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 August 2016 $18.93 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 July 2016 $19.14 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
20 January 2016 $18.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
16 December 2015 $18.81 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
09 November 2015 $19.05 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
24 July 2015 $20.21 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 May 2015 $20.28 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 April 2015 $20.49 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
25 February 2015 $21.23 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
13 January 2015 $22.83 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 December 2014 $23.33 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 September 2014 $23.53 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 August 2014 $24.15 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 July 2014 $25.33 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 May 2014 $25.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
17 January 2014 $22.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 December 2013 $22.77 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
07 November 2013 $23.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
29 July 2013 $22.80 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
21 June 2013 $23.43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
16 May 2013 $23.67 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
02 April 2013 $23.97 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
26 February 2013 $24.27 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
23 January 2013 $25.64 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 December 2012 $26.06 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
09 November 2012 $26.59 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
26 September 2012 $27.02 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
14 May 2012 $24.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
10 April 2012 $25.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
09 March 2012 $26.33 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
18 November 2011 $27.26 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
21 September 2011 $29.14 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 August 2011 $29.20 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 June 2011 $29.60 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 May 2011 $29.94 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 May 2010 $22.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 March 2010 $23.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 January 2010 $23.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 July 2009 $22.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
02 March 2009 $21.20 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 November 2008 $21.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 October 2008 $22.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
05 September 2008 $30.17 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 August 2008 $31.73 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
02 May 2008 $32.79 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
16 August 2007 $23.05 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 May 2007 $22.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 March 2007 $22.97 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

50 Day Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
22 December 2025 $25.44 25.3 25.4
28 October 2025 $26.18
26 June 2025 $26.11 36.7 30.0
07 April 2025 $25.66 204.4 226.0 84.5
01 August 2024 $23.42 124.7 134.1 77.7 92.8 40.7
15 December 2023 $21.44 22.7 27.3 34.1 44.8 70.3
10 January 2023 $19.48 59.8 65.9 31.4 25.0
09 December 2022 $19.61 27.2 18.9 22.7 20.3
18 October 2022 $20.00 10.3 12.4 11.7 15.2
22 June 2022 $21.39
08 July 2021 $17.68 293.5 357.0 335.3 35.3 33.9
08 July 2021 $16.82 293.3 357.2 334.9 35.0 62.0
29 March 2021 $16.04 124.7 142.6 188.0 232.0 35.9
26 June 2020 $12.60 68.8 83.6 71.3 73.7 42.7
21 April 2020 $12.70 19.3 22.7 24.7 30.2 30.0
06 March 2020 $14.36 6.1 7.3 9.1 12.1 20.7
31 January 2020 $14.92 5.4 6.5 8.1 10.5
06 September 2019 $13.94 155.4 142.5 60.1 44.2
31 July 2019 $15.04 12.3
25 April 2019 $15.20
11 February 2019 $15.75
21 December 2018 $15.80
28 September 2018 $15.66 168.9
23 August 2018 $15.78
17 July 2018 $16.06
15 June 2018 $17.04
04 April 2018 $17.12 84.8
06 December 2017 $17.37
15 August 2017 $17.57
22 June 2017 $17.67 405.1 113.7
27 March 2017 $18.49
01 December 2016 $18.39 46.0
30 September 2016 $18.58
29 August 2016 $18.93
22 July 2016 $19.14
20 January 2016 $18.38 39.1 45.2 26.3 29.4
16 December 2015 $18.81 12.8 13.4 16.8 22.3
09 November 2015 $19.05 9.0 10.8 13.4 17.8
24 July 2015 $20.21 5.7
27 May 2015 $20.28 68.8 83.6
20 April 2015 $20.49 28.1
25 February 2015 $21.23
13 January 2015 $22.83
11 December 2014 $23.33
15 September 2014 $23.53
12 August 2014 $24.15
01 July 2014 $25.33
27 May 2014 $25.80
17 January 2014 $22.42 98.3 94.3 123.0 170.1 100.0
16 December 2013 $22.77 32.1 38.7 49.0 63.2
07 November 2013 $23.00 18.7 22.5 27.3 35.0
29 July 2013 $22.80 9.1 10.9 13.6 17.7
21 June 2013 $23.43 7.6 9.0 11.1 14.6
16 May 2013 $23.67 6.5 7.7 9.5 12.6
02 April 2013 $23.97 5.5 6.6 8.2 10.8
26 February 2013 $24.27
23 January 2013 $25.64
20 December 2012 $26.06
09 November 2012 $26.59
26 September 2012 $27.02
14 May 2012 $24.36 49.9 58.8 71.5 95.2
10 April 2012 $25.60 23.0 28.1 31.3 27.8
09 March 2012 $26.33 14.4 17.5 15.0
18 November 2011 $27.26
21 September 2011 $29.14
08 August 2011 $29.20 623.5 312.9 252.3
23 June 2011 $29.60 33.9 37.4
12 May 2011 $29.94 17.8
14 May 2010 $22.16 33.3 32.3 41.0 52.1 55.4
04 March 2010 $23.16 12.3 12.3 15.0 19.4 31.2
27 January 2010 $23.64 8.5 9.7 12.1 14.7 26.2
07 July 2009 $22.36 93.4 119.9 166.4 38.8
02 March 2009 $21.20 256.7 312.7 374.5 424.3 127.4
21 November 2008 $21.56 98.4 90.5 112.2 138.6 42.2
10 October 2008 $22.70 >10,000 >10,000 35.0 17.0
05 September 2008 $30.17
04 August 2008 $31.73 185.0 249.5
02 May 2008 $32.79 59.8 70.2 93.5 128.9
16 August 2007 $23.05 155.4 189.6 122.3 170.2 84.1
08 May 2007 $22.32 116.9 98.6 112.4 156.1 59.8
30 March 2007 $22.97 27.2 32.3 40.9 22.1 30.8

The data for Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: DBA) was last updated 22 Apr 2026 11:20. Data for this ETF is available from 05 Jan 2007 - 20 Apr 2026.