VanEck Oil Refiners (CRAK) Mega Dump Lite

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 5.15%.   Win rate: 100%.   Mean CAGR: 126.96%. Time in market: 5 years 70 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -3.292. Maximum drawdown: 33.17% on 07 April 2025.

About this Chart's Calculations for Oil Refiners

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (100% * 5.15%) - (0% * 0%) = 5.15%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump Lite - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 78 82 83 92 162
2024 129 130 162 223 269
2023 29 87 93 145 271
2022 48 94 103 103 206
2021 30 34 49 63 231
Avg. Days 62 85 98 125 227
CAGR 33.3% 28.4% 30.9% 32.1% 34.1%

Mega Dump Lite - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2025 $29.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 April 2025 $25.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 January 2025 $28.97 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 December 2024 $27.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 November 2024 $31.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 August 2024 $34.32 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
06 May 2024 $37.04 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
09 October 2023 $32.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 May 2023 $30.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 March 2023 $30.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 January 2023 $32.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
13 December 2022 $32.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
14 October 2022 $28.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 September 2022 $30.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
01 August 2022 $30.23 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
28 June 2022 $30.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
01 March 2022 $27.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 December 2021 $27.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 November 2021 $27.95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 August 2021 $27.29 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 July 2021 $27.27 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 April 2021 $27.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
26 March 2021 $27.71 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank

Mega Dump Lite - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2025 $29.92 84.8 98.6 117.1 103.4 75.8
10 April 2025 $25.42 341.0 413.2 333.1 386.0 221.4
28 January 2025 $28.97 15.0 17.3 22.0 29.2 38.1
27 December 2024 $27.40 155.3 175.4 39.1 24.8 43.0
05 November 2024 $31.59 7.7 9.3 11.4 12.7 20.8
08 August 2024 $34.32
06 May 2024 $37.04
09 October 2023 $32.66 93.4 80.5 71.2 31.0 45.6
08 May 2023 $30.18 28.1 33.8 40.9 51.3 24.6
20 March 2023 $30.02 493.5 356.8 558.7 29.9 22.1
17 January 2023 $32.18 493.5 9.8 11.9 15.8
13 December 2022 $32.00 49.9 9.2 10.3 13.6
14 October 2022 $28.38 293.5 413.6 373.7 469.5 23.0
12 September 2022 $30.32 40.8 46.2 56.5 56.2
01 August 2022 $30.23 110.1 24.5 29.9 35.3
28 June 2022 $30.94 14.1 17.1 19.4
01 March 2022 $27.52 133.5 142.6 156.9 207.2 107.8
28 December 2021 $27.14 623.2 739.3 559.7 916.5 55.8
24 November 2021 $27.95 43.8 54.4 23.3 27.1 41.9
24 August 2021 $27.29 124.7 103.1 117.5 128.9 27.3
22 July 2021 $27.27 38.2 40.2 48.3 59.0 24.0
27 April 2021 $27.70 623.4 738.9 665.2 170.2
26 March 2021 $27.71 54.4 65.9 79.9 68.1

The data for VanEck Oil Refiners (exchange: ARCX symbol: CRAK) was last updated 06 Mar 2026 14:32. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 05 Mar 2026.