United States Copper Index Fund (CPER) Mega Dump

Buy signal:            
        [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 5.9%.   Win rate: 100%.   Mean CAGR: 97.32%. Time in market: 4 years 150 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -1.11. Maximum drawdown: 25.93% on 23 March 2020.

About this Chart's Calculations for Copper

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (100% * 5.9%) - (0% * 0%) = 5.9%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Mega Dump - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 30 30 34 52 95
2024 196 196 199 99 139
2022 199 200 201 202
2021 74 76 48 54 44
2020 20 24 40 53 110
2017 36 45 52 84 117
Avg. Days 92 95 95 90 101
CAGR 21.4% 25.1% 32% 47.2% 93.3%

Mega Dump - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. check_box_outline_blank = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
18 March 2026 $33.88 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
30 January 2026 $36.76 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 December 2025 $34.25 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
10 October 2025 $31.09 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 April 2025 $30.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 November 2024 $26.74 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 May 2024 $29.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
23 June 2022 $22.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
21 October 2021 $27.98 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 February 2021 $25.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
11 January 2021 $22.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 September 2020 $18.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 August 2020 $17.69 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 June 2020 $16.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 March 2020 $14.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 May 2019 $17.66 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
05 December 2017 $19.25 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 May 2017 $16.49 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

Mega Dump - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
18 March 2026 $33.88
30 January 2026 $36.76
29 December 2025 $34.25 1,174.0 1,987.0 2,614.5 207.2
10 October 2025 $31.09 39.9 49.4 54.1 60.0 101.5
03 April 2025 $30.28 21.9 24.8 31.3 43.1 27.3
06 November 2024 $26.74 21.1 25.7 32.8 42.1 61.4
22 May 2024 $29.94 6.1 7.3 9.0
23 June 2022 $22.98 9.4 11.2 14.0 18.8
21 October 2021 $27.98 14.3 17.3
26 February 2021 $25.42 35.2 43.4 55.4 65.6
11 January 2021 $22.02 81.1 80.5 108.1 144.0 353.8
23 September 2020 $18.46 88.9 113.7 64.6 84.1 120.8
07 August 2020 $17.69 341.4 175.2 87.7 59.0 79.3
11 June 2020 $16.30 143.6 134.1 166.3 232.0 65.6
16 March 2020 $14.76 25.6 31.4 38.6 50.6 78.4
01 May 2019 $17.66
05 December 2017 $19.25 228.0 312.8 250.4
03 May 2017 $16.49 36.0 32.8 37.6 51.3 76.6

The data for United States Copper Index Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: CPER) was last updated 19 Mar 2026 13:24. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2016 - 18 Mar 2026.