iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond (EMB) 50 Day Lows

Buy signal:             [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:           [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: -0.9%.   Win rate: 71.43%.   Mean CAGR: 18.05%. Time in market: 13 years 220 days.
Sharpe Ratio: -2.867. Maximum drawdown: 28.34% on 20 October 2022.

About this Chart's Calculations for Emerging Market Bonds

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (71.43% * 5.01%) - (28.57% * 15.66%) = -0.9%.. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally it should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

 

50 Day Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 7.5% 10% 20%
2024 287 313
2023 176 275 334
2022 38 47 113
Avg. Days 167 211 223
CAGR 11.3% 13.3% 16.9%

50 Day Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 7.5% 10% 20%
20 January 2026 $95.76 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 April 2025 $88.98 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 December 2024 $89.98 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 November 2024 $90.49 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
21 September 2023 $83.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
16 August 2023 $84.42 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
18 May 2023 $83.92 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
21 February 2023 $84.39 select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
26 September 2022 $80.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
12 July 2022 $83.54 select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
10 June 2022 $87.70 check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
14 April 2022 $94.08 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 February 2022 $103.96 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 January 2022 $106.68 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 November 2021 $107.77 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

50 Day Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 7.5% 10% 20%
20 January 2026 $95.76
04 April 2025 $88.98 14.8 14.5
18 December 2024 $89.98 7.1 8.8
01 November 2024 $90.49 5.8
21 September 2023 $83.60 23.9 15.2 11.0
16 August 2023 $84.42 16.1 7.5
18 May 2023 $83.92 8.9
21 February 2023 $84.39 6.2
26 September 2022 $80.46 36.7 50.1 36.1
12 July 2022 $83.54 143.6 141.0
10 June 2022 $87.70
14 April 2022 $94.08
08 February 2022 $103.96
06 January 2022 $106.68
23 November 2021 $107.77

The data for iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond (exchange: XNAS symbol: EMB) was last updated 31 Jan 2026 12:53. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 30 Jan 2026.