Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) 50 Day Lows

Buy signal:                 [ What are these indicators? ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]

Expectancy: 5.14%.   Win rate: 100%.   Mean CAGR: 83.03%. Time in market: 2 years 157 days.
Sharpe Ratio: 0.267. Maximum drawdown: 16.03% on 30 September 2022.

About this Chart's Calculations for US Industrials

Expectancy calculation (win % x average win) - (loss % x average loss): (100% * 5.14%) - (0% * 0%) = 5.14%. To be a profitable trader you need to trade with a positive value for expectancy.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return.

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

50 Day Lows - Profit Probability Projections

This table summarises how long it would take after buying the ETF at the 50 day lows to reach the specified percentage return. Note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The calculations exclude the exceptionally volatile month of March 2020. Calculations also exclude dividends and other distributions to shareholders.

Date Days to Reach Profit Target
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
2025 43 57 72 276
2024 21 86 117 305
2023 67 79 102 254
2022 53 91 112 59
2021 30 45
Avg. Days 42 71 100 223
CAGR 52.8% 45% 41.6% 34.8%

50 Day Lows - Backtest Trading Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this ETF at each 50 day low. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
18 November 2025 $149.86 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
11 March 2025 $130.98 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 December 2024 $132.68 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
05 August 2024 $120.49 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 October 2023 $99.27 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 September 2023 $105.78 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 March 2023 $97.35 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 September 2022 $83.78 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 June 2022 $87.36 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
09 May 2022 $92.52 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box select_check_box check_box_outline_blank
25 January 2022 $98.69 check_box_outline_blank disabled_by_default check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank
20 September 2021 $96.66 select_check_box disabled_by_default select_check_box check_box_outline_blank check_box_outline_blank

50 Day Lows - Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Summary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the annual percentage performance had the investment grown at the same rate over one year. Cross reference the figures in the tables below with the backtesting results tables above to see how long it took to achieve profitability after buying this ETF at the specific 50 day low. A red (empty) table cell shows that the specific profit point has not yet been achieved. Calculations exclude dividends or other distributions this fund may distribute to fund holders.

Date Price Gains / CAGR
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
18 November 2025 $149.86 142.6 55.7 66.1 82.2
11 March 2025 $130.98 33.3 40.9 52.1 49.2 27.3
19 December 2024 $132.68 71.5 83.6 19.5 20.1
05 August 2024 $120.49 493.6 277.8 200.5 116.6 24.4
20 October 2023 $99.27 110.0 119.8 90.5 97.8 71.0
11 September 2023 $105.78 21.4 25.7 28.3 26.5 23.9
15 March 2023 $97.35 23.3 26.7 33.2 38.4 22.3
26 September 2022 $83.78 124.7 113.8 141.1 196.6 208.9
13 June 2022 $87.36 48.5 58.8 71.4 82.2
09 May 2022 $92.52 20.9 25.1 14.4 15.2
25 January 2022 $98.69
20 September 2021 $96.66 81.1 94.4 79.9

The data for Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: XLI) was last updated 07 Feb 2026 12:19. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 06 Feb 2026.